Are there Regional Preferences in the US?
A few months back, Kate Bernot told the Beervana Community something that blew my mind. Different members were sharing stories about breweries in their regions, and she dropped this little nugget of local culture: drinkers in Montana, where Kate lives, love Scotch ales. “Scotch ales” are largely an American invention from a time when Americans didn’t really understand European beer. They flourished for a time and with a few exceptions vanished twenty years ago. Could it be true that they not only survive in Montana, but flourish? Kate delivers the goods in the latest edition of Montana Quarterly, which apparently exists only in print. Fortunately, I have a copy and can excerpt a key passage:
“This type of malty, brown beer doesn’t even crack the top 45 best-selling styles nationally, yet in Montana, practically every brewery makes one…. In the past year, sales data from market research firm Nielsen shows Scotch ales were the seventh best-selling beer style in Montana’s groceries, Walmarts, and other chain stores—right behind mass-market products like light lagers and hard seltzer.”
“Lots of people in Montana ‘sort of perceive Scotch ale as what beer ought to be,’ says Bob Hall, a member of the board of directors of Ronan Cooperative Brewery in Ronan and a grandmaster-level beer judge. ‘And so the more breweries make them, the more people drink them, and the more they drink them, the more breweries make them.’”
As usual for Kate, it’s a very well-reported and insightful piece of culture writing I find fascinating. I wish I could tell you how to find it. Maybe call the magazine?
Anyway, it got me thinking. How many states or regions have quirky little preferences not shared elsewhere? Do Iowans love, I don’t know, Belgian dubbels? Are they crazy for kölsch in Kansas City? I mean, if Scotch ale is thriving in Montana, anything is possible.
Unlike Kate, I wasn’t able to access Nielsen’s state-level data. Through a bit of clandestine back-channeling, I was able to find a source willing to make a dead-drop in the tailpipe of an abandoned Camry on Burnside containing Nielsen’s regional data. (In fact it arrived, less atmospherically, as a series of screenshots in my inbox.) Regions are far less helpful because they average across states. One wouldn’t be able to easily discern this Montana Scotch ale phenomenon by looking at the Mountain region (eight states), where the style is the 20th most popular, two slots below fruit/veg beers. Nevertheless, one can see quite a few interesting tidbits by comparing the regions. Preferences do vary.
(Massive caveat parenthetical! I did get 52-week numbers that are fairly current, which is one good thing. The regions are weird, however, hewing to the census formulation, where the Midwest is cut into east and west halves and where the South stretches from Texas to Delaware. The styles are not super clear. The top-selling styles in ever region are “light lager” (presumably light beer) and American lager (no idea). Nielsen has an idiosyncratic way of identifying styles. They include both amber lager and Vienna lager, but don’t have a cream ale category, which means Genny’s volume in the Northeast went … somewhere. Because they work with scan data, Nielsen includes the categories “seasonal” and “assorted” which are obviously not styles. And so on.)
General Trends
The best-selling styles in every region are light lager, American lager, and seltzer in that order, with the exception of the Pacific region, where American lager is number one. In most regions, FMBs are fourth, but not the Pac or NE regions—IPAs are. After those four mass-market styles, other mass market styles come in at various places, rounding out what is surely the least interesting dimension of the dataset. Nationally, they include ice lager (6) and malt liquor (9).
In all regions IPA is the best-selling craft style, and hazy IPA is close behind, falling no lower than 5th for craft styles in any region (South). Popular craft styles are below, and in parentheses I will include single large brands that elevate the style where relevant. These are national numbers, and I’ve pulled out “seasonal” and “assorted”.
IPA
Amber lager (Boston Lager)
Witbier (Blue Moon)
Hazy IPA (Hazy Little Thing is probably a significant player here)
Cider (Angry Orchard)
Double IPA
Pilsner
Pale ale (Sierra Nevada)
Herb/spice
Blond/Golden (Firestone Walker)
It goes on from there, down to Porter at 33rd, accounting for just 91,000 barrels—as compared to the 59.5 million barrels of light lager. IPA (excluding hazy and strong IPAs) is a respectable 4.7 million barrels. Seltzer more than doubled that volume, however, at 10.2 million barrels.
Interesting Trends
So what about regionality? Everyone likes IPAs, but the Pacific and NE regions really like them. Hazy IPAs are the second-most popular craft styles in both regions and in the Pacific, strong IPAs are third. But the position conceals how much more popular these styles are in these regions than others. In the Northeast, people buy a case of IPA for every 5.7 cases of the best-selling style, Light lager. In the Pacific it’s about the same, at one per 6.1 cases of American lager (the best-seller there). Nationally, however, people buy only one case of IPA for every 20 cases of light lager.
Because we’re looking at regional data, there’s a lot of smoothing among regions. Still, a few interesting quirks emerge among craft styles:
Pilsner is 3rd in the NE and no higher than 8th anywhere else.
Witbier is number 2 in the Mountain and Midwest-West regions, a fair bit higher than most regions. (Blue Moon is brewed in Colorado.)
The Midwest-East district is heavy into macro, but amazingly saison appears number 11 on their craft list. It doesn’t rank in any other region.
“Dry cider” (a proxy for craft cider?) is 13th most popular in the NE and 14th in the Pacific. It appears on no other lists.
Imperial stouts come in at 12 and 13 on the Midwest lists. Elsewhere that style is much lower.
A case of IPA fetches around $39.60 in the US, while a case of light lager sells for just $21.80. If I could distill the electrical current of excitement/dread rocketing through beverage alcohol right now, it’s this: a case of seltzer is going for $32.35.
I feel like there is so much more promise digging into state-level data. The Pacific region, for example, is basically California+ (the Golden State accounts for 75% of the population). The South is way too big. Little states are all but lost. So, if you have the state level data and are willing to share (I never burn my contacts!), I can tell you where that Camry is. Ping me.