American Beer, Four Months In
It has now been four months since states started to go into hibernation as a result of COVID-19 pandemic. In those four months, the US hasn’t exactly set the pace for stellar public policy. While Europe managed to get matters under control and have successfully reopened, the US is getting hammered with a second wave. California yesterday re-closed bars, restaurants, and breweries. Florida, with over 15,000 new cases, had more than all of Europe combined. Oregon hasn’t gone as far as California, but Governor Kate Brown began issuing new restrictions yesterday as hospitalizations and deaths climb back toward April peaks.
The worst news is that there’s really nothing to suggest this won’t be the state of affairs through the rest of 2020 and probably well into 2021. The federal government is enormously dysfunctional; the president is actively at war with his agencies, undermining the CDC and, insanely, the head of his own White House Coronavirus Task Force. States have been left to fend for themselves, and leadership has been—how to say politely?—mixed. Now we face a specter in which certain states are actively trying to bar residents from other states. And because state lines are porous in any event, the lack of a national response means the pandemic will remain uncontrolled.
This has been disastrous for businesses. We don’t have actual numbers (federal dysfunction), but tens of thousands of businesses have closed permanently. (It’s affected restaurants a lot more than breweries, and we’ve seen a number of closures recently just in Portland.) The worst thing for businesses is how much is unknown. Had the government response been consistent, as it was in Europe, businesses could plan on reopening. That requires serious controls and compliance: driving the numbers down well below R1 and then implementing consistent, strict protocols for keeping it down. All of that is far beyond the competency of the US right now (federal dysfunction), which looks like a failed state as it lumbers into spiking numbers of new deaths. So businesses are left wondering how to invest their resources given such uncertainty. (If you missed Ben Parsons’ “time will tell” diary, give it a look. He lays it out in agonizing detail.) And for many, no answer will allow them to survive like this for a year.
Although it pales in comparison to more serious questions, I do wonder how it will affect beer. We don’t know yet, but the consequences will likely be profound and long-lasting. If the pandemic ultimately drags on for a year or more, how will that permanently change the beers we drink and the way we drink them? To wit:
When will draft sales return in force across all channels?
How much of the pre-pandemic volume will draft constitute? How long will it take to reach that level?
Will the pandemic permanently affect how much people drink in pubs and breweries?
How many breweries will ultimately close? How much consolidation will the pandemic cause?
How much consolidation will the pandemic cause in the wholesale tier, and will there be any appetite to reform it?
How big will seltzer become, how durable will it be, and which segment(s) of the beer market will it damage? (Fun fact, those “punks” at BrewDog just released their own seltzer.)
In five years, how big will the US beer market be, and what will be the mix of categories (seltzer/FMB, craft, imports, domestic lager)?
Will change and experimentation continue to mark the craft segment or will things stagnate as the industry enters a pandemic-sparked defensive crouch?
This disruption will almost certainly become the signature experience for young people starting their drinking journey. How will it affect their behavior in years to come?
How many people are shifting from alcohol to cannabis, and how durable will that change be?
How wrecked will the overall economy be?
etc.
The 2010s we’re easily the most exciting decade in American brewing since the 19th century. The oomph of that moment was already waning when COVID hit, though, and now I wonder what the beer world will feel like post-pandemic. Beer has been a hell of a lot of fun for a couple of decades now—partly in terms of new-brewery growth, but more in the way it has changed and evolved. The legacy of those two decades will be felt for generations. But will the joy of that period return?
The arrival of seltzer and FMB was actually a warning sign, signaling exhaustion with the rather baroque shape beer had taken. People wanted an uncomplicated buzz. All that excitement and energy buoyed a product that was, in volume terms, not actually growing. If a year-long pandemic saps consumers’ interest in going out for ten-dollar pints, if they seek refuge instead in simpler, cheaper beer, what becomes of those halcyon 2010s? Will beer still be fun?
I wish I could find more hope and joy in these gentle summer months, but that’s where my mind is these days, four months into a pandemic that is bringing our country to its knees.