Lessons From Oregon's Mature Market
Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, has an interesting teaser for a larger report that will be coming out next week in June. Because Oregon is such a mature market, the trends he sees might soon visit states elsewhere. To wit:
I wondered aloud on Twitter whether this trend was an artifact mainly of Ninkasi's rapid growth. The answer--a little, but not much. "Overall, from '05-'14 if pull @NinkasiBrewing out, Oregon growth of 102% instead of 118% actual." Most of the growth comes from production breweries, but as distributor Jim Fick noted on Facebook, that trend will be affected by saturation at certain outlets in the future: "Grocery stores and on-premise are close to being saturated - but convenience stores are the next growth opportunity as craft sales are under-weighted there. It's already started somewhat but look for a large expansion of craft beers in convenience stores in the next 1-3 years."
So, even in Oregon, the most mature market in the US, growth has been robust and has the potential to keep growing for awhile. If you live in a state where craft beer has less than 10% of the market, you shouldn't be worrying about a bubble anytime soon.
[T]he vast majority of the growth in local sales is driven by new breweries and their products. While the state’s legacy breweries have seen increased sales, much of their growth in recent years is outside of Oregon (either in other states or internationally.)It comes with these handy graphs:
I wondered aloud on Twitter whether this trend was an artifact mainly of Ninkasi's rapid growth. The answer--a little, but not much. "Overall, from '05-'14 if pull @NinkasiBrewing out, Oregon growth of 102% instead of 118% actual." Most of the growth comes from production breweries, but as distributor Jim Fick noted on Facebook, that trend will be affected by saturation at certain outlets in the future: "Grocery stores and on-premise are close to being saturated - but convenience stores are the next growth opportunity as craft sales are under-weighted there. It's already started somewhat but look for a large expansion of craft beers in convenience stores in the next 1-3 years."
So, even in Oregon, the most mature market in the US, growth has been robust and has the potential to keep growing for awhile. If you live in a state where craft beer has less than 10% of the market, you shouldn't be worrying about a bubble anytime soon.