The Year in Review
Note: post has been edited slightly for clarity.
What year is complete without a year-end review? BuzzFeed has more or less made us all despise these things, but I've been doing year-end recaps since long before the ubiquity of click-baiting listicles, and by God, I plan to keep up the tradition. (Completists may like to peruse the old posts from 2011, 2010a and 2010b, 2009, 2008a and 2008b, and 2007.) So without further throat-clearing, let's get right to it. Here were the trends and developments I thought were most interesting.
Good Trend: Lager's Triumphant Return
As recently as a few years ago, I was pretty sure no one on the West Coast was going to be able to give away lagers. Full Sail got the ball rolling, but their line of lagers seemed more like a brewing cul-de-sac rather than a blazed new trail. The presence of the LTD series and Sessions appeared to be the exceptions that proved the rule, not a new trend. But by last year, signs of a lager renaissance were becoming insistent, and this year, lagers were everywhere. Not only did lagers return--there was even a lager fest--but they were really good. Standouts included Breakside's Float and Pilsner, the pilsners from the Commons and Upright (the latter an early trendsetter), Ninkasi's Bohemian Pils, and possibly my favorite, Hop Valley's Czech Your Head.
Bad Trend: Price Spiral
In the very competitive Portland market, the prices on standard beer has remained mostly flat for years. We can thank Bill Night for his steady work in making those figures available. (In 2009, a six-pack set you back $9.09 and now you have to pony up just $9.50.) But in that four-year period, specialty releases have become a much bigger part of the brewing calculus, and prices on those beers has really spiked. Beyond Beervana, where competition is lighter, prices have spiked even more. You can see the effect of that at bottle shops, where fairly standard beers from other parts of the country are often ten bucks a bomber. Specialty releases are even more expensive, and as Alan has pointed out a million times, this feels more like gouging than compensation for spendier processes like barrel aging. (If Frank Boon will sell me a bottle of his Mariage Parfait for less than ten bucks, why should I be paying $20 for an American brett bomb?)
Good Trend: Cider Comes of Age
It's weird to talk about the emergence of a beverage that has been around longer than the country, but until 2013, cider was on no one's radar. Mass market cider was at the end of cooler next to the alco-pops and good luck trying to find it on tap. This year, cider finally seeped into our collective consciousness. It's in nearly every restaurant or pub I visit, and nearly always in the form of an all-juice "craft" cider. (I know this is different outside Portland, where if you see a cider, it's likely to be Angry Orchard.) One of the breakthrough products was Two Towns Rhubarbarian--the first cider I heard people talking about and using as an example of what "good" cider could be. It was such a good year for cider that it even started appearing at beer fests.
Ambiguous Trend: New Breweries
When historians look back on 2012-2013, they probably won't remember lagers or ciders so much as the explosion of new brewery openings. This is a continuation of the trend that started last year, when more than 400 new breweries opened up (!) and continued on this year. The numbers aren't in for 2013, but the Brewers Association thinks there might be as many as 500. I am still unconvinced this is the sign of a catastrophic bubble, but there is at least one thing to worry about. For the first time in a long time, production brewery openings are outpacing brewpub openings. (The stats are slightly unclear--what would you call Ecliptic, which opened as a brewpub that bottles beer?) There is plenty of room for craft beer growth, but supermarket shelves only have so much real estate. Will there be a shakeout in the next five years? With 900 breweries opening in two years, I guess we're running the experiment in real time.
Troubling Trend: Too Many Beers
The market within the craft beer segment has changed dramatically in the last five years. Once breweries were able to build up a single brand or two build their brewery around it. The explosion of choice has created a kind of manic ADHD scramble for the new, however, and now breweries regularly make dozens of different beers. Breakside made a hundred, but even old stalwarts like Widmer Brothers and Deschutes made dozens. I've mentioned feeling personally overwhelmed by the choice, but there's something more than personal preference at work here. Selling to a promiscuous consumer base is touchy business, and godspeed to those breweries--particularly the bigger ones--who are trying to find what the public wants next.
Good Trend: Permanent Market Realignment
I don't think there's any doubt that the beer market is permanently altered. Each year, the market for mass market lagers declines--sometimes precipitiously--and each year the craft beer segment expands. At this point, China is the battleground for growth among the industrial giants. Locally, their growth strategy involves getting some of that craft money. Mass market lagers won't disappear, but they're headed for a long decline. Meanwhile, the biggest of the little guys--Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas, New Belgium--are borrowing a page from the industrial playbook and opening new breweries. This will further push hoppy ales into the mainstream, hastening the decline of the various lights and lites. There is an equilibrium some decades in the future, and it includes a healthy share for all-barley ales.
Ambiguous Trend: Changing Media
I'll go out on a bit of a navel-gazer. This will be the first year I don't do the Satori Award. It's partly due to the fact that the changes is brewing have made it obsolete--breweries don't really think in terms of permanency anymore. But it's also because blogs themselves are no longer particularly relevant in the discussion of beer. When I started this blog in 2006, there was a bit of utility in offering my reviews and opinions about beers. It's amazing to think about, but Facebook didn't launch as a national site until that September, and Twitter didn't exist. Social media as such was limited to things like blogs, which offered a chatty alternative to newspapers. But in the few short years since then, everything has changed. No one really looks to blogs to help them navigate niche worlds anymore. Opinion is so ubiquitous we are instantly tired of it. In an environment saturated with people oversharing, a blog looks like grandpa's old-timey Facebook page.
There are a lot of opportunities for bloggers to do new and interesting stuff. But we need to rethink the blog. Once, we were the BuzzFeeds offering our listicles as an alternative to newspapers. It's quite possible the reverse is happening: now newspapers don't offer in-depth reporting anymore, so it may be up to citizen bloggers to do that. I've always tried to do long-form blogging with actual reporting (such as I am able to do it), and this blog may morph ever more in that direction. I only posted 210 times in 2013, the lowest number since 2006. If I can break myself of old habits, I may try to do more of the long-form stuff. We shall see.
Whatever 2014 brings, I hope it is fresh and tasty, just like my favorite beers. Happy new year to you all--
 |
| Ecliptic, one of 500 new breweries in 2013. |
Good Trend: Lager's Triumphant Return
As recently as a few years ago, I was pretty sure no one on the West Coast was going to be able to give away lagers. Full Sail got the ball rolling, but their line of lagers seemed more like a brewing cul-de-sac rather than a blazed new trail. The presence of the LTD series and Sessions appeared to be the exceptions that proved the rule, not a new trend. But by last year, signs of a lager renaissance were becoming insistent, and this year, lagers were everywhere. Not only did lagers return--there was even a lager fest--but they were really good. Standouts included Breakside's Float and Pilsner, the pilsners from the Commons and Upright (the latter an early trendsetter), Ninkasi's Bohemian Pils, and possibly my favorite, Hop Valley's Czech Your Head.
Bad Trend: Price Spiral
In the very competitive Portland market, the prices on standard beer has remained mostly flat for years. We can thank Bill Night for his steady work in making those figures available. (In 2009, a six-pack set you back $9.09 and now you have to pony up just $9.50.) But in that four-year period, specialty releases have become a much bigger part of the brewing calculus, and prices on those beers has really spiked. Beyond Beervana, where competition is lighter, prices have spiked even more. You can see the effect of that at bottle shops, where fairly standard beers from other parts of the country are often ten bucks a bomber. Specialty releases are even more expensive, and as Alan has pointed out a million times, this feels more like gouging than compensation for spendier processes like barrel aging. (If Frank Boon will sell me a bottle of his Mariage Parfait for less than ten bucks, why should I be paying $20 for an American brett bomb?)
Good Trend: Cider Comes of Age
It's weird to talk about the emergence of a beverage that has been around longer than the country, but until 2013, cider was on no one's radar. Mass market cider was at the end of cooler next to the alco-pops and good luck trying to find it on tap. This year, cider finally seeped into our collective consciousness. It's in nearly every restaurant or pub I visit, and nearly always in the form of an all-juice "craft" cider. (I know this is different outside Portland, where if you see a cider, it's likely to be Angry Orchard.) One of the breakthrough products was Two Towns Rhubarbarian--the first cider I heard people talking about and using as an example of what "good" cider could be. It was such a good year for cider that it even started appearing at beer fests.
Ambiguous Trend: New Breweries
When historians look back on 2012-2013, they probably won't remember lagers or ciders so much as the explosion of new brewery openings. This is a continuation of the trend that started last year, when more than 400 new breweries opened up (!) and continued on this year. The numbers aren't in for 2013, but the Brewers Association thinks there might be as many as 500. I am still unconvinced this is the sign of a catastrophic bubble, but there is at least one thing to worry about. For the first time in a long time, production brewery openings are outpacing brewpub openings. (The stats are slightly unclear--what would you call Ecliptic, which opened as a brewpub that bottles beer?) There is plenty of room for craft beer growth, but supermarket shelves only have so much real estate. Will there be a shakeout in the next five years? With 900 breweries opening in two years, I guess we're running the experiment in real time.
Troubling Trend: Too Many Beers
The market within the craft beer segment has changed dramatically in the last five years. Once breweries were able to build up a single brand or two build their brewery around it. The explosion of choice has created a kind of manic ADHD scramble for the new, however, and now breweries regularly make dozens of different beers. Breakside made a hundred, but even old stalwarts like Widmer Brothers and Deschutes made dozens. I've mentioned feeling personally overwhelmed by the choice, but there's something more than personal preference at work here. Selling to a promiscuous consumer base is touchy business, and godspeed to those breweries--particularly the bigger ones--who are trying to find what the public wants next.
Good Trend: Permanent Market Realignment
I don't think there's any doubt that the beer market is permanently altered. Each year, the market for mass market lagers declines--sometimes precipitiously--and each year the craft beer segment expands. At this point, China is the battleground for growth among the industrial giants. Locally, their growth strategy involves getting some of that craft money. Mass market lagers won't disappear, but they're headed for a long decline. Meanwhile, the biggest of the little guys--Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas, New Belgium--are borrowing a page from the industrial playbook and opening new breweries. This will further push hoppy ales into the mainstream, hastening the decline of the various lights and lites. There is an equilibrium some decades in the future, and it includes a healthy share for all-barley ales.
Ambiguous Trend: Changing Media
I'll go out on a bit of a navel-gazer. This will be the first year I don't do the Satori Award. It's partly due to the fact that the changes is brewing have made it obsolete--breweries don't really think in terms of permanency anymore. But it's also because blogs themselves are no longer particularly relevant in the discussion of beer. When I started this blog in 2006, there was a bit of utility in offering my reviews and opinions about beers. It's amazing to think about, but Facebook didn't launch as a national site until that September, and Twitter didn't exist. Social media as such was limited to things like blogs, which offered a chatty alternative to newspapers. But in the few short years since then, everything has changed. No one really looks to blogs to help them navigate niche worlds anymore. Opinion is so ubiquitous we are instantly tired of it. In an environment saturated with people oversharing, a blog looks like grandpa's old-timey Facebook page.
There are a lot of opportunities for bloggers to do new and interesting stuff. But we need to rethink the blog. Once, we were the BuzzFeeds offering our listicles as an alternative to newspapers. It's quite possible the reverse is happening: now newspapers don't offer in-depth reporting anymore, so it may be up to citizen bloggers to do that. I've always tried to do long-form blogging with actual reporting (such as I am able to do it), and this blog may morph ever more in that direction. I only posted 210 times in 2013, the lowest number since 2006. If I can break myself of old habits, I may try to do more of the long-form stuff. We shall see.
Whatever 2014 brings, I hope it is fresh and tasty, just like my favorite beers. Happy new year to you all--